Today is PI day (3-14). It’s also the eve of the Ides of March (Marcus Junius Brutus, call on white courtesy phone; Brutus, white courtesy phone). The world is also waiting for a Russian equivalent of Brutus (Brutowski) to step forward to give Russia a way to let go of the tar-baby of Ukraine.
I’ve noticed a shift in tone in a lot of news reports. A Russian attack (using cruise/ballistic missiles) on an airbase 15 miles from the Polish border is being hyped as a (near) attack on NATO triggering a Rule 5 violation. It was an attack on a purely military installation, probably a site for receiving military aid from Europe. I am much more concerned with civilian casualties in Kyiv,
It looks like Putin is following the pattern of his previous victories in Georgia and Chechnya, particularly in his victory of the battle of Grozny. Facing unrelenting opposition, he backed off, shelled the city to rubble, declared victory, installed a puppet government, and rebuilt the city. The difference now is that Ukraine is distinctly European rather than somewhere off in the Caucasus between the Black and Caspian Seas.
In my view the U.S. must remain on the sidelines and let Europe deal with European problems. Let the Europeans invoke a no-fly-zone if they desire, and we should provide all the arms we can to Poland and Romania and let them distribute them as they see fit.
Yes, the people of Ukraine will suffer mightily, but if we wind up expanding to Global Nuclear War the suffering will be, well, Global. However, while Ukraine bleeds, the Russian’s will be bleeding more, the Russian Army and the Russian Economy particularly. The only escape for Putin is to escalate into a NATO confrontation so he can portray himself as the defender of Russia against US/NATO.
There are of course comparisons to the 1930’s and Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland and Austrian Anschluss. If the Allies had intervened in either one of those, could WWII have been avoided? In my view, the difference is that neither of them had the level of opposition that the Russians have/will encounter (Mandatory Sound of Music reference). I think now is the time for the US and NATO to pull back (while continuing to arm Ukraine and provide solace and succor to the women and children). Let them exhaust themselves and drive their army and economy into third world status. Keep the sanctions in place until the Russians depose Putin, withdraw, and rebuild Ukraine. Maybe offer to purchase all of Russia’s nuclear weapons to help them rebuild.