Month: March 2022

Things continue to move slowly but painfully in Ukraine. What amazes me is that the lines are moving ever so slowly around Kyiv, but recently the tanks have dug in; when a tank is in a fixed position it becomes a sink for various anti-tank weapons. Also interesting is the city of Mariupol which has been surrounded for over a week, but although hospitals and theatres are being shelled, Russians still haven’t taken and occupied the city.

I continue to believe that we should give Ukraine the weapons (including the Switchblade 600 anti-tank weapon) but avoid direct warfare with Russia. Between sanctions and steadily increasing body count let him struggle, just like Russia did in Afghanistan from 1979-1989. We happily supplied Stinger missiles but didn’t feel the need to directly intervene.

The only thing that will save Putin if he can involve NATO in direct warfare. Then he can portray himself as defending Russia against the western devils. If we deny him this, we (both NATO and the US) need to back off and let him continue to struggle against Ukraine. It’s like being in Afghanistan, but with a highly educated, technically savvy, and well supplied population who hate your guts.

For those of you wondering why or why not a “No Fly Zone” in Ukraine might be a good idea, I have a discussion of that by two knowledgeable individuals HERE.

One of the people is Ward Carroll, an ex-navy F-14 RIO (radar intercept operator). He has a fairly interesting You Tube channel that mainly discusses various aspects of Naval Aviation. They discuss in great detail what can and cannot be done to aid Ukraine while simultaneously avoiding things getting out of control.

Today is PI day (3-14). It’s also the eve of the Ides of March (Marcus Junius Brutus, call on white courtesy phone; Brutus, white courtesy phone). The world is also waiting for a Russian equivalent of Brutus (Brutowski) to step forward to give Russia a way to let go of the tar-baby of Ukraine.

I’ve noticed a shift in tone in a lot of news reports. A Russian attack (using cruise/ballistic missiles) on an airbase 15 miles from the Polish border is being hyped as a (near) attack on NATO triggering a Rule 5 violation. It was an attack on a purely military installation, probably a site for receiving military aid from Europe. I am much more concerned with civilian casualties in Kyiv,

It looks like Putin is following the pattern of his previous victories in Georgia and Chechnya, particularly in his victory of the battle of Grozny. Facing unrelenting opposition, he backed off, shelled the city to rubble, declared victory, installed a puppet government, and rebuilt the city. The difference now is that Ukraine is distinctly European rather than somewhere off in the Caucasus between the Black and Caspian Seas.

In my view the U.S. must remain on the sidelines and let Europe deal with European problems. Let the Europeans invoke a no-fly-zone if they desire, and we should provide all the arms we can to Poland and Romania and let them distribute them as they see fit.

Yes, the people of Ukraine will suffer mightily, but if we wind up expanding to Global Nuclear War the suffering will be, well, Global. However, while Ukraine bleeds, the Russian’s will be bleeding more, the Russian Army and the Russian Economy particularly. The only escape for Putin is to escalate into a NATO confrontation so he can portray himself as the defender of Russia against US/NATO.

There are of course comparisons to the 1930’s and Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland and Austrian Anschluss. If the Allies had intervened in either one of those, could WWII have been avoided? In my view, the difference is that neither of them had the level of opposition that the Russians have/will encounter (Mandatory Sound of Music reference). I think now is the time for the US and NATO to pull back (while continuing to arm Ukraine and provide solace and succor to the women and children). Let them exhaust themselves and drive their army and economy into third world status. Keep the sanctions in place until the Russians depose Putin, withdraw, and rebuild Ukraine. Maybe offer to purchase all of Russia’s nuclear weapons to help them rebuild.

Important things to take from recent developments:

• Russia has seriously miscalculated; managing to unite all of NATO and the EU and even getting Sweden and Switzerland to unite on imposing sanctions and providing arms and other aid to Ukraine.
• Putin has evidenced that he is seriously isolated and even more paranoid about COVID, etc. then most of us have thought.
• Given that he cannot sweep into Ukraine as expected and establish a puppet government; he has definitely grabbed the tar-baby, letting go will be the problem.
• As he struggles against the sanctions, and is bogged down by the active resistance, and body bags start coming home and he faces growing opposition by the Russian people he will be tempted to double down on the scorched earth policy, even to using (tactical) nuclear weapons.
• I can only hope that if he orders use of nuclear weapons his underlings will step in and either retire him to a dacha somewhere or give him the 9mm retirement package.
• If “Things get out of hand” we can only hope it is restricted to a brief exchange before we all step back from the brink.

Now for some memes:

Tom Lehr HERE

I’ve been following the issues in Ukraine fairly closely especially, as a professional interest, since Putin invoked the possibility of canned sunshine (a delightful phrasing I stole from HERE).

I stumbled across another YouTube video (HERE) that focuses more on recent history and draws the implications from the geography of Eastern Europe, and Russia’s preoccupation with buffers between NATO states and itself.

The other interesting thing is the connection that Ukraine is basically a replay of the invasion of Georgia (the nation, not the State) in 2008. Basically, Georgia had two breakaway provinces (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) with large Russian populations. They were recognized (and occupied) by Russia who then launched an invasion on the pretext of protecting the Russian population and reintegrated Georgia as a buffer state.

Of course, the US was somewhat distracted by ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Georgia was unrelated to NATO and Europe. Another complication is that Ukraine had inherited a large nuclear stockpile when the USSR dissolved and was persuaded to give them up and was assured by Bill Clinton that the US would “assure” it’s integrity.